‘We just didn’t do as good a job’: Citi’s stock-trading faltered in the third-quarter — and there’s a clear business to blame

  • Citigroup reported strong third-quarter earnings Friday, beating analyst expectations and growing profit by 12%.
  • Trading revenues were robust in aggregate, but equities momentum slowed, growing just 1% compared to the same period in 2017.
  • Cash equities was fingered as the culprit, with losses overshadowing gains in the prime and derivatives businesses.
  • “We just didn’t do as good a job navigating the choppy trading environment in cash equities,” CFO John Gerspach said.
  • The stock-trading business, which had experienced growth in recent periods, was reorganized in March.

After a hot start to the year, Citigroup is showing signs of weakness in one its equities business lines.

Panic In Equities, USD/CHF Closes The Week Positive

When most of us think about safe-havens, the Swiss franc comes to mind. A pillar of historical strength and security, the Swissie is one of the go-to assets when financial waters become turbulent. In the midst of last week’s chaos in U.S. and global equities, one would think that the USD/CHF was in for a correction. This did not occur. Rates closed in the green for the third consecutive week.

Risks Aren’t Only for Equities

In our experience, we find many investors approach choosing securities based on odd criteria—like perceptions of safety from risk. A common presumption we have encountered in this vein: Equities are risky because their prices tend to swing, sometimes a lot, in the short term. Investors often presume debt securities are safe because their prices tend to move less. Whilst equities are more volatile than some fixed-interest securities in the short run, we think conflating the terms volatility and risk is an error. All investments carry risks—different securities merely emphasise different risk flavours. We think too many fixed-interest investors fixate on volatility and discount debt securities’ risks. Here we will discuss one such risk: Default risk—the risk the debtor doesn’t pay interest or principal due.

The Big Indicator for US Equities that is Concerning

US equity markets have seen a dramatic fall over the last week. There have been a few reasons why the sell-off has taken place, but no one key moment that led to the selling.

The SPX has dropped 200 points in a matter of days after yields started rising in the US and fears around future growth started to become a very real proposition.

At the same time, it is now clear that the tariffs on China are here to stay and that ultimately means yet another tax on the American people.

Over the last few years, all sell-offs have quickly been met with an equally quick buying frenzy. As buying-the-dip has been all the rage.

However, this week we have seen a key indicator get triggered and it could spell trouble for equity investors.

Technical Outlook

The key indicator for many long-term investors and those in the asset allocation business is the 200-SMA.

This is often referred to as a “regime filter” and it isn’t a sell or buy signal as such. Basically, when price is below the 200 SMA, markets are more likely to crash. Look back at the charts of the period through 2007-2009.

Price only crashes severely when we get below the 200-SMA. The same type of process is true of stocks. You never see a stock crash from its highs.

It’s a slow period of grinding lower, before the washout at the bottom.

That’s why institutions and big money player watch the 200-SMA. This week we’ve have closed just on top of that mark. But we are close. We actually did close below it during the week.

Even earlier in the year, the SPX didn’t really break the 200, despite all the volatility and headlines. So keep a close watch this week as if we hold below, we could well be in for some increased volatility ahead.

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