Summary

• US equities are most likely in very late stage of a bull market.
• Europe and some Asian markets probably peaked during the past few months.
• Technical analysis suggests that US equities are near the end of a cyclical trend.
• The bearish worldwide macro-technical picture could signal a peak for US equities within the next few months.

A Bull Market For The History Books

US equities performed a record bull run from the end of the great recession up until now. The broad-based S&P 500 index gained almost 340%. It is the longest bull run in US history. It did not unfold as a straight line and showed some twists and turns. The S&P 500 corrected on six occasions by a low double-digit figure since 2010. The subsequent rallies erased all corrections leading to today’s levels.

Stoked by political concerns, weak investor sentiments toward frontier and emerging markets, the Nigerian equities market recorded another decline last week. As a result, the Nigerian bourse’s year-to-date decline worsened to 15.5 per cent.

The current growth cycle in equities has been “elongated” by the U.S. tax cuts that went into effect earlier this year, said Robert P. Browne, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Corp., Chicago.

“You can’t ignore … whether there’ll be a recession in the next five years,” said Mr. Browne, who co-authored a five-year capital markets analysis the bank released Sept. 3, which is available on Northern Trust’s website.

European stocks have underperformed the U.S. for so long they simply must catch up — that’s been said before, only to end in frustration. But the right conditions may soon fall into place, according to Europe’s largest asset manager.

Large public pension plans that were more heavily weighted toward U.S. equities than international stocks found themselves seeing double-digit returns well above their benchmarks in the fiscal year ended June 30.

Kohl’s Co. (NYSE:KSS) – Jefferies Financial Group decreased their Q1 2020 earnings estimates for shares of Kohl’s in a report issued on Tuesday, August 21st, according to Zacks Investment Research. Jefferies Financial Group analyst R. Konik now expects that the company will post earnings per share of $0.83 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.88. Jefferies Financial Group also issued estimates for Kohl’s’ Q3 2020 earnings at $1.32 EPS and Q4 2020 earnings at $2.86 EPS.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) – Imperial Capital reduced their FY2018 earnings per share estimates for Netflix in a research note issued on Thursday, August 23rd, Zacks Investment Research reports. Imperial Capital analyst D. Miller now expects that the Internet television network will post earnings of $2.68 per share for the year, down from their prior forecast of $2.71. Imperial Capital currently has a “Outperform” rating and a $494.00 price target on the stock. Imperial Capital also issued estimates for Netflix’s Q4 2018 earnings at $0.48 EPS, Q4 2019 earnings at $1.13 EPS and FY2019 earnings at $4.60 EPS.

Moneyball is a reference to Michael Lewis’s book chronicling how the Oakland Athletics used quantitative analysis to find underrated players

Deutsche Bank’s global head of equities is seeking inspiration from a legendary baseball team as he looks to overturn a three-year rout of the business with a shrinking budget.

The divergence between the two regions reflects the difference in macro data strength between the two

Risk assets were mixed over the month of August with global and US equities rising while emerging markets, Japanese and European equities and global high yield were all down.

The threat from heightened tensions between the U.S. and China could drag down stocks more than many are anticipating, according to one hedge fund vet.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Thursday, Appaloosa Management co-founder David Tepper warned that equities are at risk of falling 5% to 20% if the trade war with the Asian economic powerhouse worsens.