Stock Markets

Equity markets continued their positive momentum this week, with major indices posting solid gains following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025. The main stock market index of United States, the US500, rose to 6664 points on September 19, 2025, gaining 0.49% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 4.20% and is up 16.87% compared to the same time last year. The three major indexes were coming off a winning session Monday that sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to records, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.2% and had hit a new high of 22,090.25.

Small-cap stocks emerged as a standout performer, with the Russell 2000 Index of small caps (RUT—candlesticks) closed at an all-time record high above 2,460 yesterday, the first time in nearly four years it’s made an all-time closing high. This surge in small-caps reflects growing investor confidence in domestic-focused companies that stand to benefit from potential policy changes and lower interest rates.

The Morningstar US Market Index gained 1.48%. The best-performing sectors were technology, up 2.76%, and utilities, up 2.22%. The worst-performing sectors were consumer defensive, down 0.4%, and industrials, up 0.04%. The technology sector’s outperformance continues to drive market gains, while defensive sectors lagged as investors rotated into growth-oriented assets.

Value stocks have shown particular strength recently, with the value category remains at a 3% discount to fair value, whereas growth stocks remain at an 8% premium and core stocks are close to fair value. Small-cap stocks remain the most attractive part of the market at a 15% discount, whereas large and mid-cap are fairly valued.

U.S. Economy

The Federal Reserve delivered its anticipated first rate cut of 2025 this week, marking a significant shift in monetary policy. Rate cuts are back, with the Fed delivering its first 25 basis point (0.25%) move in 2025 as it responds to signs of a concerning slowdown in the U.S. labor market. In September 2025, it implemented its first 2025 rate cut, projecting two additional rate cuts this year.

Labor market conditions remain a key focus for policymakers, with unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.30 percent in August from 4.20 percent in July of 2025. This uptick in unemployment has contributed to the Fed’s more accommodative stance as they seek to support economic growth while managing inflation expectations.

The central bank’s decision reflects meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2028, indicating a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions.

Metals and Mining

The precious metals market has experienced significant momentum, particularly in gold, which continues to reach new heights. Gold rose to 3,682.50 USD/t.oz on September 19, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold’s price has risen 10.09%, and is up 40.47% compared to the same time last year.

This remarkable performance in gold reflects multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, central bank monetary policy shifts, and continued safe-haven demand. Gold prices—a barometer of safe-haven demand—reached an all-time nominal high in mid-October, fueled by heightened geopolitical tensions, sustained central bank purchases.

Base metals face a more challenging outlook as following a projected 4 percent increase in 2024, base metal prices are anticipated to stabilize in 2025 and decline by 3 percent in 2026 as industrial activity grows at a moderate pace in major economies, including China.

Energy and Oil

Energy markets showed mixed performance this week, with crude oil facing downward pressure. Crude Oil fell to 62.72 USD/Bbl on September 19, 2025, down 1.34% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil’s price has risen 0.02%, but it is still 11.66% lower than a year ago.

The energy sector has been impacted by broader economic concerns and supply-demand dynamics. The energy price index fell by 3.9% in August, driven by an 8.8% drop in U.S. natural gas and a 3.6% decline in crude oil prices.

Despite short-term volatility, energy markets continue to be influenced by geopolitical factors and global economic growth prospects, with geopolitical tensions remain a significant upside risk in commodity markets. The possibility of escalating conflicts in the Middle East represents a substantial near-term risk to several commodities.

Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have shown volatility amid changing supply and demand dynamics. The sector faces headwinds from increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, though geopolitical factors continue to provide support for prices.

Weather patterns and seasonal demand shifts remain key drivers for natural gas pricing, with storage levels and production capacity utilization closely monitored by market participants.

World Markets

International equity markets have shown resilience, with several regions posting gains alongside U.S. markets. Chinese markets have been particularly noteworthy, with the MSCI China Index’s near-30% YTD gain overshadowing flat performance in India. India hasn’t underperformed the broader MSCI EM Index by this degree in decades.

European markets have generally trended higher as investors anticipate continued monetary accommodation from the European Central Bank. The coordinated global shift toward easier monetary policy has provided support for risk assets across developed markets.

Emerging markets have experienced mixed performance, with commodity-producing nations benefiting from selective strength in precious metals while those dependent on industrial commodities face headwinds.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases and events to monitor in the coming week include:

Key Topics to Watch:

• Federal Reserve officials’ commentary on monetary policy outlook

• Weekly jobless claims data

• Consumer confidence indicators

• Manufacturing and services PMI flash readings

• Corporate earnings reports from key technology companies

• Geopolitical developments affecting commodity markets

• Central bank communications from major economies

Market participants will be particularly focused on any guidance regarding the pace of future rate cuts and economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. The interaction between monetary policy, inflation expectations, and labor market conditions will remain critical factors driving market sentiment.

Investment Implications:

The current market environment suggests continued opportunities in value-oriented investments, particularly in small-cap stocks trading at attractive discounts. The precious metals rally, led by gold’s exceptional performance, indicates ongoing demand for inflation hedges and safe-haven assets. Energy markets face near-term challenges but may offer opportunities for longer-term investors willing to navigate volatility.

As we progress through the final quarter of 2025, investors should remain attentive to the evolving economic landscape, particularly the effectiveness of monetary policy accommodation in supporting growth while managing inflation expectations.

Stock Markets

The major stock indexes delivered a mixed performance this week, with record-breaking highs amid uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 617.08 points, or 1.36%, at 46,108.00, while the S&P 500 ended up 0.85% at 6,587.47. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.72% to 22,043.07. All three major averages scored new intraday all-time highs in the trading day and closed at record levels.

However, the week ended on a more cautious note. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.44% higher to settle at 22,141.10, led by a surge in Tesla shares. The broad market S&P 500 hovered around the flatline, down just 0.05% to finish at 6,584.29. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 273.78 points, or 0.59%, to close at 45,834.22. The main stock market index of United States, the US500, fell to 6584 points on September 12, 2025, losing 0.05% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 1.82% and is up 17.03% compared to the same time last year.

Market breadth showed improvement throughout the week. Stocks rolled up more record highs Thursday with broad participation across most sectors, unlike the narrower rallies earlier this week. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average topped 63% yesterday, but even that’s relatively low breadth considering index strength.

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic data presented a mixed picture, with inflation concerns and labor market weakness creating uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, showing a slight acceleration in inflationary pressures.

On the employment front, jobless claims data painted a concerning picture. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 263 thousand in the week ending September 6 of 2025 from 236 thousand in the previous week. More significantly, weekly jobless claims also jumped by a seasonally adjusted 263,000, higher than the 235,000 estimate and up 27,000 from the prior period, according to the Labor Department. The number also marked the highest level since October 2021.

The combination of persistent inflation and weakening labor market conditions has created a complex environment for monetary policy. The US economy is sending mixed signals as inflation accelerates while labor market data shows signs of cooling. These trends complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, with markets eagerly awaiting the central bank’s next move.

Metals and Mining

The precious metals market continues to reflect economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Gold has maintained its position as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility, though specific pricing data for the week remains mixed across various trading platforms.

Silver prices have shown resilience, benefiting from both industrial demand and investment flows during periods of market stress. The precious metals complex continues to serve as a hedge against inflation concerns and currency debasement risks.

Industrial metals have faced headwinds from global economic uncertainty and mixed manufacturing data. Copper prices have been particularly sensitive to economic growth concerns, while aluminum and zinc have shown varied performance based on supply-demand dynamics in their respective markets.

The outlook for metals remains tied to broader economic conditions, with gold likely to benefit from continued uncertainty while industrial metals await clearer signals on global economic recovery.

Energy and Oil

The energy sector experienced significant volatility this week, reflecting broader commodity market dynamics and geopolitical considerations. The energy price index fell by 3.9% in August, driven by an 8.8% drop in U.S. natural gas and a 3.6% decline in crude oil prices.

Oil markets have been influenced by a combination of supply concerns, demand expectations, and economic growth projections. The recent decline in crude prices reflects concerns about global economic slowdown and its impact on energy consumption.

Natural gas markets showed particular weakness, with U.S. natural gas prices declining significantly. This decline has been attributed to increased production capacity, mild weather patterns, and reduced industrial demand in key consuming sectors.

The energy sector’s performance continues to be closely watched as a barometer of both economic health and geopolitical stability, with traders monitoring developments in major producing regions and policy changes affecting energy transition investments.

World Markets

European equity markets showed resilience this week, supported by expectations for continued monetary accommodation and stabilizing economic indicators. The pan-European indices benefited from sector rotation into value stocks and reduced concerns about immediate recession risks.

Asian markets presented a mixed picture, with Chinese equities facing continued headwinds from property sector concerns and broader economic growth questions. Japanese markets were influenced by speculation about Bank of Japan policy changes and currency movements affecting export-oriented companies.

Emerging markets showed varied performance, with commodity-dependent economies facing challenges from falling resource prices while technology-focused markets benefited from continued global demand for digital services and infrastructure.

The global economic environment remains characterized by divergent monetary policies, with central banks navigating between inflation control and growth support objectives.

The Week Ahead

The coming week promises significant market-moving events, with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision taking center stage. Key economic releases will provide additional insight into the health of the U.S. economy and inflation trends.

Key Topics to Watch

• Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy statement

• Weekly initial jobless claims data

• Existing home sales figures

• Manufacturing and services PMI data

• Consumer sentiment readings

• Corporate earnings reports from major companies

• International trade and economic indicators

Market participants will be particularly focused on Federal Reserve communication regarding future policy direction, given the mixed signals from recent economic data. The central bank’s assessment of inflation progress and labor market conditions will be crucial for setting market expectations for the remainder of 2025.

Additionally, ongoing geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global supply chains and commodity markets will remain in focus, as investors continue to balance growth optimism against persistent economic uncertainties.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes showed mixed performance this week, with investors exhibiting cautious optimism following Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to for a + 0.30% weekly gain on the heels of a big Friday rally, following Chair Powell’s speech and the Jackson Hole Symposium. The broad market index rose 0.2% just after the opening bell, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below the flatline.

Market breadth showed encouraging signs as the broadening of the rally, outside of the Magnificent 7 stocks, signals there may be more sustainable momentum building. Stocks ended Thursday in the green, with the S&P 500® index closing above 6,500 for the first time. This milestone reflects continued investor confidence despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

Technology stocks faced headwinds during the week, with Nvidia — The graphics processing unit manufacturer slipped nearly 2% after its data center revenue came in below estimates, highlighting concerns about AI infrastructure spending sustainability.

U.S. Economy

The economic landscape presented a mixed picture this week, with employment data showing resilience while growth concerns persist. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July, maintaining historically low levels that continue to support consumer spending.

Monthly readings of payroll job creation were consistently stronger in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate has remained historically low at just over 4 percent. As of June, a total of 671,000 payroll jobs have been created during the first five months of this Administration.

However, longer-term economic projections suggest moderation ahead. We expect real GDP growth to slow to just 0.8% year over year (y/y) by Q4 2025. The passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” removes one major source of policy uncertainty by extending key expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), thereby averting a fiscal cliff worth 1% of GDP.

Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted toward accommodation, with Investors are exiting August with greater confidence the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals continued their strong performance this week, with gold maintaining its bullish trajectory. Gold prices slowly moving upward and might reach the top of $3,250 – $3,450 range in few days – week. We still expect the price to continue the bullish trend and print new record high.

Silver showed particularly strong gains, with Silver rose to 39.74 USD/t.oz on August 29, 2025, up 1.69% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 7.03%, and is up 37.72% compared to the same time last year, reflecting robust investor demand for precious metals amid currency and geopolitical concerns.

The precious metals rally has been supported by multiple factors including The weakening dollar, Trump’s sudden move against Lisa Cook, and upcoming trade tariffs all pushed investors towards safe-haven assets. Political tensions regarding Federal Reserve independence have added another layer of uncertainty driving safe-haven demand.

Gold continues to benefit from its position as a hedge against monetary policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, maintaining its role as a portfolio diversifier during periods of market volatility.

Energy and Oil

Energy markets remained relatively stable this week, though geopolitical tensions continue to influence price dynamics. Oil prices have been supported by supply concerns and seasonal demand patterns, though specific weekly price movements were limited by broader economic growth concerns.

Natural gas markets showed mixed signals, with regional pricing variations continuing to reflect transportation bottlenecks and local supply-demand imbalances. The upcoming winter heating season preparations are beginning to influence forward curve pricing.

World Markets

European markets demonstrated resilience this week, supported by expectations of continued central bank accommodation and stabilizing economic indicators. Investors remained focused on the European Central Bank’s policy trajectory and its implications for regional growth prospects.

Asian markets showed divergent performance, with Japan facing headwinds from currency strength concerns while Chinese markets benefited from ongoing stimulus measures and improved economic data. The strength of the yen continued to weigh on Japanese export-oriented companies, creating challenges for the Nikkei’s performance.

Emerging markets generally outperformed developed markets as investors sought higher yields and growth prospects amid expectations of global monetary policy easing.

The Week Ahead

The coming week features several critical economic releases that could shape market direction and Federal Reserve policy expectations:

Key Topics to Watch:

• August employment report (September 6)

• Initial jobless claims

• ISM Manufacturing PMI for August

• Consumer sentiment surveys

• Federal Reserve officials’ speeches ahead of blackout period

• Earnings from major technology companies

• Global manufacturing PMI data

• Central bank policy meetings in key economies

Investors will be particularly focused on labor market data as it directly influences Federal Reserve policy decisions for the September meeting. Any signs of continued labor market resilience could complicate expectations for aggressive rate cuts, while weakness might accelerate dovish policy adjustments.

The intersection of domestic economic data, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations will continue to drive market volatility and sector rotation patterns in the week ahead.

Stock Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes posted mixed results this week, with markets showing resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties. The S&P 500 slipped on Friday after hitting a record high, as investors took some gains off the table after a strong week. Despite Friday’s pullback, the index managed to secure its second consecutive weekly gain.

The main stock market index of United States, the US500, fell to 6465 points on August 15, 2025, losing 0.05% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 3.22% and is up 16.40% compared to the same time last year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq has been particularly strong, with stocks higher Friday, leading the three major averages to post winning weeks.

Market volatility remained relatively contained as expectations for lower interest rates continue driving the major indexes to all-time highs. The investor risk appetite showed signs of stabilization following the turbulent periods seen earlier in the month.

Value stocks continued to show relative strength compared to growth names, particularly in sectors benefiting from potential policy shifts and interest rate expectations. Financial sector performance remained solid, supported by expectations of a favorable interest rate environment.

U.S. Economy

This week’s economic landscape was shaped by key inflation and employment data releases. Inflation Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 2.70 percent in July. The stability in inflation readings provided some comfort to markets that had been concerned about persistent price pressures.

Core inflation metrics showed continued moderation, with Core CPI (ex. Food and Energy) at 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually, indicating that underlying price pressures remain elevated but are showing signs of stabilization.

On the employment front, Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.20 percent in July from 4.10 percent in June of 2025. This modest uptick in unemployment reflects a cooling labor market that continues to normalize from historically tight conditions.

The combination of stable inflation and a slightly softening labor market has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have more flexibility in its monetary policy approach in the coming months.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals markets showed mixed performance this week, with gold facing some consolidation pressure after recent gains. Gold fell to 3,335.60 USD/t.oz on August 15, 2025, down 0.00% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold’s price has fallen 0.34%, but it is still 33.01% higher than a year ago.

The gold market has been experiencing sideways trading patterns, with gold prices mostly sideways. No bearish continuation toward the green box area and no strong recovery following recent volatility. Technical analysts note that gold remains in a consolidation phase after significant year-to-date gains.

Silver and other precious metals have faced similar headwinds, with industrial metals showing more sensitivity to economic growth concerns and global trade dynamics.

The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to provide headwinds for precious metals, though geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies remain supportive factors for the sector. Gold maintains its appeal as a portfolio diversifier, offering low correlation to risk assets, no third-party or geopolitical risks, relatively low volatility, and a deep and liquid market in an environment of ongoing economic uncertainty.

Energy and Oil

Energy markets have been influenced by a combination of supply dynamics and demand concerns. Crude oil prices last year were dragged down by weak Chinese demand and a supply glut — market watchers expect prices to remain pressured in 2025.

Oil price movements this week reflected ongoing concerns about global economic growth and energy demand, particularly from major consuming nations. Geopolitical factors continue to provide support, though the overall trend remains influenced by fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

Natural gas markets have shown some volatility, with regional price differences reflecting infrastructure constraints and seasonal demand patterns. The transition to cleaner energy sources continues to influence long-term market dynamics, while short-term pricing remains sensitive to weather patterns and storage levels.

World Markets

European equity markets showed resilience this week, with major indexes benefiting from expectations of continued monetary accommodation by the European Central Bank. Investor sentiment improved on hopes that inflation pressures are moderating, potentially allowing for more aggressive rate cuts.

Japanese markets faced headwinds from currency movements and speculation about Bank of Japan policy adjustments. The yen’s strength against the dollar continued to weigh on export-oriented companies, while domestic policy expectations remained a key focus for investors.

Chinese markets showed signs of stabilization, with government stimulus measures and economic support policies providing some foundation for equity performance. However, ongoing concerns about property sector challenges and global trade dynamics continue to influence investor sentiment.

The Week Ahead

The coming week will feature several important economic releases that could influence market direction:

Key Topics to Watch:

• Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the latest policy session

• Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys

• Initial jobless claims data

• Consumer confidence indicators

• Flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services sectors

• Housing market data including existing and new home sales

• Energy inventory reports

• Key earnings releases from major corporations

Market participants will be particularly focused on any signals from Federal Reserve communications regarding the future path of monetary policy, given the current economic backdrop of moderating inflation and a cooling labor market. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical developments and global trade dynamics will remain key factors influencing market sentiment across all asset classes.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes experienced a mixed week with notable volatility across sectors. The S&P 500 slipped 1.6% to close 6,238.01, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 2.24% 20,650.13. However, markets showed resilience later in the week, with the US500 rose to 6389 points on August 8, 2025, gaining 0.78% from the previous session. The S&P 500 gained 0.73% to close at 6,345.06, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.21% and settled at 21,169.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81.38 points, or 0.18%, ending at 44,193.12.

The week was characterized by strong earnings results from key technology companies, particularly Apple, which climbed 5% after a White House official confirmed to CNBC that the iPhone maker is going to benefit from new policy developments. Despite earlier volatility, the rebound in risk appetite drove the S&P 500 up 1.5%, its biggest rally since May. Almost every major group in the US equity benchmark advanced, and about 85% of its companies closed higher.

Looking at year-over-year performance, the index has climbed 2.01% and is up 19.56% compared to the same time last year, demonstrating the market’s underlying strength despite short-term fluctuations.

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic data presented a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 226 thousand in the week ending August 2 of 2025 from 219 thousand in the previous week, indicating a modest uptick in unemployment applications. Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1974 thousand in the week ending July 26 of 2025 from 1936 thousand in the previous week, suggesting some persistence in unemployment levels.

On the inflation front, Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025, showing upward pressure on consumer prices and potentially complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The labor market data suggests some cooling from previous strength, with jobless claims rising though remaining at historically reasonable levels. The uptick in both initial and continuing claims bears watching as an indicator of broader economic momentum.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals showed strong performance this week, particularly silver, which demonstrated exceptional gains. Silver rose to 38.38 USD/t.oz on August 8, 2025, up 0.27% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 5.51%, and is up 39.83% compared to the same time last year, making it one of the standout performers in the commodities sector.

Gold continued to maintain its position as a preferred safe-haven asset despite market volatility. The precious metals complex has benefited from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about monetary policy, with investors seeking assets that traditionally perform well during periods of economic uncertainty.

The strong performance in precious metals, particularly silver’s nearly 40% year-over-year gain, reflects both industrial demand and investment interest. Silver’s dual role as both an industrial metal and a store of value has contributed to its outperformance relative to other precious metals.

Energy and Oil

The energy sector faced headwinds this week, with oil prices declining significantly. Crude Oil fell to 63.35 USD/Bbl on August 8, 2025, down 0.83% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil’s price has fallen 7.36%, and is down 17.56% compared to the same time last year.

The weakness in oil prices reflects multiple factors including concerns about global economic growth, potential increases in supply, and demand uncertainties. The significant year-over-year decline of nearly 18% indicates sustained pressure on energy markets, which contrasts sharply with the strength seen in precious metals.

Natural gas markets remained active, though specific weekly data was limited in available reports. The broader energy complex continues to navigate between supply dynamics and demand concerns amid changing global economic conditions.

World Markets

European equity markets showed generally positive momentum during the week, supported by earnings results and monetary policy expectations. Market participants continued to monitor central bank policies across major economies, with particular attention to potential rate changes and their impact on global equity valuations.

Asian markets displayed mixed performance, with investors weighing regional economic data against global market trends. The interconnected nature of global markets meant that developments in U.S. markets had significant influence on trading patterns across international exchanges.

Emerging markets faced headwinds from dollar strength and commodity price movements, particularly in energy-dependent economies. The divergence between precious metals and energy commodities created different impacts across various international markets.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases scheduled for the coming week include:

Key Topics to Watch:

• U.S. Consumer Price Index for July

• Initial jobless claims for August 15

• Producer Price Index data

• Retail sales figures for July

• Industrial production numbers

• Federal Reserve meeting minutes

• Consumer sentiment preliminary reading for August

Market participants will be particularly focused on inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, while earnings season continues with additional major companies reporting results. The interaction between economic data, corporate earnings, and monetary policy expectations will likely drive market direction in the coming week.

Commodity markets will continue to reflect the balance between economic growth concerns and supply-demand dynamics, with particular attention on energy prices and their potential impact on inflation readings.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes faced significant pressure this week, reversing earlier gains as investors reassessed market valuations amid mixed earnings reports and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 slipped 1.6% to close 6,238.01, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 2.24% 20,650.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 542.40 points, or 1.23%, to finish the session 43,588.58.

The weekly decline marked a notable shift from the previous weeks’ momentum, with technology stocks leading the retreat. Tesla has tumbled more than 22% in 2025, making Tesla the worst performer within megacap tech this year following disappointing earnings results. The broader market selloff was driven by profit-taking in high-flying tech names and concerns about stretched valuations.

Despite the weekly decline, the US500 index is up 16.67% compared to the same time last year, highlighting the market’s strong year-to-date performance even amid recent volatility. The correction appears to be a healthy pullback after an extended rally that saw multiple record highs earlier in the year.

U.S. Economy

The week’s economic focus centered on labor market data, which continued to show resilience despite some softening. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 218 thousand in the week ending July 26 of 2025 from 217 thousand in the previous week. The modest increase in claims suggests the labor market remains stable, though continuing claims data shows some persistence in unemployment levels.

Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States remained unchanged at 1946 thousand in the week ending July 19 of 2025 from 1946 thousand in the previous week. This stability in continuing claims indicates that while new layoffs remain low, those who are unemployed are taking longer to find new positions.

Inflation data from June showed a moderate uptick, with Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This increase brings inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, though it remains within acceptable ranges that shouldn’t trigger immediate policy changes.

Metals and Mining

The precious metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with silver emerging as a standout performer. Silver rose to 37.02 USD/t.oz on August 1, 2025, up 0.93% from the previous day. Over the past month, Silver’s price has risen 1.25%, and is up 29.60% compared to the same time last year.

Silver’s strong performance reflects continued investor interest in precious metals as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. The metal has significantly outperformed many other asset classes year-to-date, benefiting from both industrial demand and safe-haven flows.

Gold continues to maintain its position as a preferred store of value, particularly as geopolitical tensions persist globally. The precious metals complex remains supported by central bank purchases and portfolio diversification strategies among institutional investors.

Industrial metals showed more mixed results, with supply chain concerns and global economic growth questions weighing on demand expectations. However, green energy transition themes continue to provide underlying support for certain metals used in renewable energy infrastructure.

Energy and Oil

The energy sector faced headwinds this week as oil prices retreated from recent highs. Crude Oil fell to 67.28 USD/Bbl on August 1, 2025, down 3.00% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil’s price has fallen 0.26%, and is down 8.49% compared to the same time last year.

The decline in oil prices reflects concerns about global demand growth, particularly from China, and improved supply conditions in key producing regions. OPEC+ production decisions and U.S. strategic petroleum reserve policies continue to influence market dynamics.

Natural gas markets remain volatile, influenced by weather patterns, storage levels, and export demand. The transition to cleaner energy sources continues to create structural changes in traditional energy markets, affecting both pricing and investment flows.

Renewable energy stocks showed resilience despite broader market weakness, as policy support and technological advances continue to drive long-term growth prospects in the sector.

World Markets

European equity markets displayed mixed performance as investors navigated ongoing economic challenges and policy uncertainties. Central bank policies across the region continue to influence market sentiment, with the European Central Bank maintaining its cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments.

Asian markets showed divergent trends, with Chinese equities continuing their recovery amid government stimulus measures and improving economic data. However, concerns about trade relationships and global economic growth continue to create volatility in the region.

Japan’s markets reflected ongoing speculation about Bank of Japan policy changes, with currency movements affecting export-dependent companies. The yen’s strength against the dollar continues to impact the competitiveness of Japanese manufacturers in global markets.

Emerging markets faced pressure from dollar strength and concerns about capital flows, though some regions benefited from commodity price movements and domestic policy support measures.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases scheduled for the coming week include:

Key Topics to Watch:

• U.S. leading economic indicators for July

• Initial jobless claims for August 8

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July

• Producer Price Index (PPI) for July

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for August

• S&P Global U.S. services PMI for August • S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for August

Market participants will be closely monitoring inflation data to gauge Federal Reserve policy direction, while corporate earnings continue to provide insights into economic conditions across various sectors. Geopolitical developments and central bank communications from major economies will also influence market sentiment in the week ahead.

Stock Markets

U.S. equity markets continued their strong performance this week, with major indexes posting solid gains and multiple record closes. The broad market index ticked up 0.06% to end at 6,309.62 and notch its 11th record close in 2025. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.37 points, or 0.40%, settling at 44,502.44. However, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite showed some weakness, slipped 0.39% and closed at 20,892.69, bogged down by declines in certain tech names.

Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed their large-cap counterparts this week. Over the seven days, the Russell is higher by 2.17%, better than the S&P 500’s 1.44% gain. In July alone, small caps are up 4.62% while large caps have gained 2.4%. This rotation into smaller companies suggests investor confidence in domestic economic growth prospects.

Several individual stocks posted exceptional weekly performance. GoPro shares have soared more than 58% so far this week, while Krispy Kreme shares have surged more than 32%. That marks the biggest weekly gains for each in their respective histories on the public market. Meanwhile, Kohl’s shares have jumped nearly 34% week to date.

The market momentum has been supported by strong earnings expectations and continued optimism around economic resilience. During Thursday’s session, 27 stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs. Notable companies reaching new highs included Warner Bros. Discovery, Citigroup, and Coinbase, indicating broad-based strength across multiple sectors.

U.S. Economy

Economic data this week continued to support the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy operating at or near full employment. The labor market remains tight with unemployment claims staying near historical lows. Consumer sentiment and spending patterns suggest continued economic expansion, though at a more moderate pace than earlier in the recovery.

Inflation metrics remained a key focus for investors, with market participants closely watching for signs that price pressures continue to moderate. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance remains data-dependent, with markets pricing in potential rate adjustments later in the year based on incoming economic indicators.

Corporate earnings season is underway with several major technology companies scheduled to report next week, including Alphabet and Tesla, which could provide important insights into the health of the growth sectors that have driven much of this year’s market gains.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals markets experienced consolidation this week after the strong gains seen earlier in 2025. Gold, silver & copper have had a stellar start to 2025, with prices surging across the board. As of March 6, gold has climbed a glittering 19.33%, silver is up a shiny 12.50%, and copper has posted a solid 11.44% gain.

Gold prices appear to be in a consolidation phase. Gold prices have been consolidating for few weeks between $3,291 – $3,371 where a breakout might happen soon. The precious metal continues to benefit from its role as a portfolio diversifier and hedge against economic uncertainty, though recent price action suggests investors are taking profits after the strong year-to-date performance.

Gold prices could not print new higher swing high in the latest bullish attempt. The price loss ground and move lower, indicating some near-term weakness despite the longer-term bullish trend remaining intact.

Silver has shown similar consolidation patterns, with technical analysts watching key support and resistance levels for the next directional move. Industrial metals like copper continue to reflect global economic growth expectations, with prices supported by ongoing infrastructure spending and energy transition investments.

Energy and Oil

Crude oil markets have been trading in a defined range this week. The price of crude oil mostly trading between $65.00 – $70.00 now, reflecting balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Crude Oil $68.71 represents the current pricing level, suggesting stability in the energy complex.

The oil market continues to navigate competing factors including global economic growth prospects, production levels from major oil-producing nations, and ongoing geopolitical considerations. Recent price action suggests the market has found equilibrium in the current range, though breakouts in either direction remain possible based on fundamental developments.

Energy sector stocks have participated in the broader market rally, with several oil and gas companies posting strong quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations. The sector’s performance has been supported by disciplined capital allocation and improved operational efficiency across the industry.

Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have shown increased volatility as weather patterns and seasonal demand factors come into play. Storage levels remain within normal ranges for this time of year, though regional pricing differentials continue to reflect transportation constraints and local supply-demand imbalances.

The Henry Hub benchmark has experienced typical summer seasonality, with prices generally lower during periods of reduced heating demand but supported by increased power generation needs for cooling. Export demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to provide a price floor as global markets remain connected to U.S. production.

Pipeline capacity additions and production growth from key shale basins continue to influence regional pricing dynamics, with operators focusing on the most economic drilling locations to optimize returns in the current price environment.

World Markets

European equity markets participated in the global rally this week, with major indexes posting gains across the region. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index advanced as investors remained optimistic about economic growth prospects and corporate earnings trends.

Central bank policies across Europe continue to evolve, with the European Central Bank maintaining its cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments. Market participants are closely monitoring inflation trends and economic data for signals about future policy direction.

Asian markets showed mixed performance, with Japanese equities facing headwinds from currency movements while Chinese markets benefited from improved sentiment around domestic economic policies. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance remains accommodative, though market participants continue to watch for potential policy adjustments.

China’s equity markets have shown resilience despite ongoing economic challenges, with government support measures and improved industrial production data contributing to investor confidence. Hong Kong markets have also participated in the regional recovery, though volatility remains elevated due to various macroeconomic factors.

The Week Ahead

The coming week will be particularly important for market direction, with several major technology companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings. These results will provide crucial insights into the health of the growth sectors that have driven much of 2025’s market gains.

Economic data releases will continue to be closely watched, particularly any indicators related to consumer spending, employment, and inflation trends. Federal Reserve officials’ comments and speeches will be scrutinized for hints about future monetary policy direction.

Key Topics to Watch

• Major technology earnings including Alphabet and Tesla

• Weekly initial jobless claims data

• Consumer confidence and spending indicators
• Federal Reserve officials’ speeches and commentary

• International trade and geopolitical developments

• Corporate guidance updates from earnings reports

• Sector rotation trends and performance differentials

The market environment remains generally supportive of risk assets, though investors continue to balance optimism about economic growth with caution about potential headwinds including policy uncertainties and global economic developments. The continued rotation from growth to value stocks and from large-cap to small-cap equities suggests a broadening of market participation that could support sustained gains if economic fundamentals remain strong.

Stock Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance this week, with markets displaying cautious optimism amid ongoing corporate earnings season preparations. The 30-stock Dow lost 142.30 points, or 0.32%, ending at 44,342.19. The S&P 500 inched 0.01% lower to close the session at 6,296.79. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added just 0.05% to settle at 20,895.66.

The week saw notable volatility with some sessions showing strong gains followed by modest pullbacks. During Thursday’s session, 27 stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs. Names that hit this milestone included the following: Warner Bros. Discovery trading at levels not seen since August 2023 · Citigroup trading at levels not seen since November 2008 · Coinbase trading at levels.

Market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic as investors positioned ahead of key earnings reports. Magnificent Seven earnings are kicking off next week, with Alphabet and Tesla the first major technology companies to report their quarterly results.

The broader market trend has shown resilience, with the US500, fell to 6297 points on July 18, 2025, losing 0.01% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 5.51% and is up 14.38% compared to the same time last year.

Small-cap stocks continued to outperform their large-cap counterparts during this period, with Small cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) gained +5.4% and outperformed large caps (S&P 500 Index) which returned +5.1%. Smaller stocks may have outperformed on hopes of future rate cuts and easing geopolitical tension.

U.S. Economy

The labor market showed signs of stability this week with jobless claims data providing mixed signals. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States decreased to 221 thousand in the week ending July 12 of 2025 from 228 thousand in the previous week, indicating a modest improvement in employment conditions.

However, continuing claims showed a slight uptick, with Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1956 thousand in the week ending July 5 of 2025 from 1954 thousand in the previous week, suggesting that while fewer people are filing for initial unemployment benefits, those already unemployed are taking longer to find new positions.

The job market data comes as investors await more comprehensive employment figures and continue to monitor Federal Reserve policy signals regarding potential interest rate adjustments later this year.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals markets showed mixed performance this week, with gold maintaining its position within established trading ranges. Gold prices mostly sideways this month and continue trading inside the range which formed at the beginning of the month. We still maintain bullish outlook on the price and expect bullish continuation from the current level.

Silver continued to face pressure, with technical analysis suggesting Silver prices continue the bearish movement and might attempt to retest the broken resistance level $37.25. When there are bullish reactions after the test, traders could enter long positions targeting $40.00. However, if the price extends the bearish movement and fall below $35.25, then further declines could be expected.

The broader precious metals complex remains in a consolidation phase, with traders watching key technical levels for potential breakouts in either direction.

Energy and Oil

The oil market showed continued volatility this week, with crude prices trading in a defined range. The price of crude oil mostly trading between $65.00 – $70.00 now, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about global supply and demand dynamics.

Technical analysis suggests the energy sector remains in a critical phase, with a possible bearish flag forming where a breakout below $63.89 will become a confirmation for movement to target $54.50 – $55.50. Traders better monitor closely the price reactions inside the channel for now. Bearish fake out could happen too and invalidate the bearish pattern.

The oil market continues to be influenced by geopolitical factors, supply chain considerations, and shifting demand patterns as global economies navigate current economic conditions.

Natural Gas

Natural gas markets experienced notable movements this week, though specific pricing data for the current reporting period requires further monitoring. The sector continues to be influenced by seasonal demand patterns, storage levels, and broader energy market dynamics.

International natural gas markets remain volatile, with European and Asian markets showing divergent trends based on regional supply and demand factors.

World Markets

European markets showed resilience this week, building on recent gains as investors remained cautiously optimistic about regional economic conditions. Central bank policy expectations continue to influence market sentiment across the European Union.

Asian markets displayed mixed performance, with investors closely watching economic data releases and policy developments from major economies in the region. The ongoing focus on trade relationships and economic cooperation agreements continues to impact market sentiment.

Chinese markets faced headwinds as investors evaluated recent economic data and policy announcements. The property sector remains a key area of concern, while manufacturing and technology sectors showed varied performance.

Japanese markets experienced volatility as investors weighed domestic monetary policy expectations against global economic trends. The yen’s movement against major currencies continued to influence export-heavy sectors.

The Week Ahead

The upcoming week promises to be eventful for financial markets, with several key developments on the horizon:

Key Topics to Watch:

• Magnificent Seven earnings reports, beginning with Alphabet and Tesla

• Federal Reserve policy communications and economic data releases

• Continued monitoring of jobless claims data for labor market trends

• Oil market technical levels and potential breakout scenarios

• Precious metals consolidation patterns and potential trend reversals

• European Central Bank policy expectations and regional economic indicators

• Asian market responses to trade and economic developments

Economic Releases to Monitor:

• Weekly jobless claims data

• Manufacturing and services PMI updates

• Consumer sentiment indicators

• Corporate earnings from major technology companies

• Energy inventory reports

• International trade data

Investors will be particularly focused on earnings results from major technology companies, as these reports could set the tone for broader market sentiment heading into the final weeks of July. The combination of corporate fundamentals, economic data releases, and ongoing geopolitical developments will likely continue to drive market volatility and investment decisions in the days ahead.

Stock Markets

Major U.S. stock indexes posted gains this week, continuing their upward momentum despite tariff-related uncertainties. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 0.19% to close at 44,541, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.27% to 6,280, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.09% to 20,630. The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.48% gain, closing at 2,263. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained subdued, falling below 16, indicating low market expectations for near-term volatility despite upcoming economic data and tariff deadlines. Sector performance was mixed, with transportation stocks, particularly airlines, leading gains after strong earnings from Delta Air Lines. Technology and communication services saw some weakness due to profit-taking in software stocks, while small-cap stocks continued to outperform large-cap growth stocks.

U.S. Economy

Economic data this week presented a resilient yet cautious picture. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 at 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week and below the consensus estimate of 235,000. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1.965 million, near a three-year high. Nonfarm payrolls for June added 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 118,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.35% year-over-year in May, with core CPI at 2.79%. Personal spending contracted by 0.14% month-over-month, signaling potential consumer fatigue. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised down to -0.5% annualized, driven by stronger imports and inventory adjustments. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes highlighted a divergence among officials on the inflationary impact of tariffs, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, potentially starting in September.

Metals and Mining

Precious metals showed mixed performance. Gold prices rose slightly by 0.14% to $3,325.70 per troy ounce, maintaining above the $2,700 support level despite a strong U.S. dollar. Silver, platinum, and palladium data were not widely reported this week, but industrial metals faced headwinds due to impending tariffs. A 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1, was announced, potentially impacting companies reliant on the metal. Copper prices on the LME were not explicitly updated, but market sentiment suggests caution due to trade policy uncertainties. The gold market continues to benefit from its low correlation to risk assets and geopolitical stability, with analysts expecting it to test higher resistance levels if trade tensions persist.

Energy and Oil

Oil prices remained volatile amid geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns. Brent crude futures were not explicitly quoted this week, but June data indicated a 25% spike due to Middle East tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict. This week’s market commentary suggests oil prices stabilized, with no significant de-escalation in hostilities reported. Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub were not updated for this week, but earlier data showed a rise to $4.083/MMBtu in mid-January. International LNG futures prices for East Asia and the Netherlands’ TTF were also not updated, but prior trends indicated declines to $14.15/MMBtu and $14.00/MMBtu, respectively. Energy sector stocks, including Bitcoin miners and related assets, saw gains driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices to $113,734.64, up 21% year-to-date.

International Markets

European markets trended higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index gaining amid optimism about potential rate cuts. Specific index performance data was not available, but earlier trends showed a 2.37% rise. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes faced pressure from a stronger yen and tariff concerns, with no specific weekly performance reported. In China, the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indexes continued to benefit from economic recovery signals, though June’s Caixin Services PMI fell to 50.6, a nine-month low. The U.S.-Japan trade negotiations remain critical, with a 24% tariff on Japanese imports looming if no agreement is reached by August 1. China’s manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.7 in June, but services growth slowed, raising doubts about further stimulus.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar remained strong, trading near its highest level in over two years, supported by tariff-driven economic policies. The yen strengthened slightly, but specific exchange rates were not reported this week. Earlier data indicated the yen at JPY 155.6 against the dollar. Currency markets are expected to remain sensitive to U.S. tariff announcements and Federal Reserve policy signals.

Economic Indicators

• Jobless Claims: Initial claims fell to 227,000, with continuing claims at 1.965 million.
• Inflation: CPI steady at 2.35%, core CPI at 2.79% in May.
• GDP: Q1 2025 revised to -0.5% annualized.
• Retail Sales: Declined 0.9% in May, signaling consumer slowdown.
• Industrial Production: No specific update, but earlier data showed weakness in manufacturing.
• Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.1% in June.
• Existing Home Sales: Rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, with median prices near all-time highs.
• Consumer Sentiment: Conference Board’s index fell to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May.
• Services PMI: Rose to 53.1 in June, indicating expansion.
• Manufacturing PMI: Held steady at 52.0 in June, signaling continued growth.

The Week Ahead

Key economic releases to watch include:

• U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for June
• Initial Jobless Claims for July 12
• Advance Retail Sales for June
• Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) for July
• S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI for July
• S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July
• Producer Price Index (PPI) for June
• Industrial Production for June

These indicators will provide further insight into the U.S. economy’s trajectory amid tariff uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Stock Markets

Major stock indexes fell across the board over the trading week. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dipped by 0.54% while the Total Stock Market Index corrected by 0.24%. The broad S&P 500 Index lost by 0.24% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market Composite withdrew by 0.53%. Bucking the trend is the NYSE Composite that ticked up by 0.20%. The investor risk perception indicator, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) moved up by 0.67%.

The week opened with a sharp decline in reaction to the announcement on the preceding Friday that President Donald Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports effective February 1. By the end of Monday, however, President Trump announced that Mexico and Canada agreed to postpone the measure for 30 days. This provided some relief and enabled the markets to recover earlier losses by the week’s end.

U.S. Economy

Driving market activity this week were earnings-related headlines that captured investors’ attention and sentiment. More than 75% of S&P 500 Index companies that have released their fourth-quarter results through Friday have posted better-than-expected earnings with an average growth rate of 16.4%. This outshines the 11.9% earnings growth estimates according to consensus.  Of the companies that have reported so far, 63% have exceeded sales expectations.

Other than company reports macroeconomic data provided some impetus to the markets. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of factory activity in the U.S., recorded expansion in January for the first time since 2022. However, optimism was somewhat quelled by the prospects that potential tariffs could pose a “huge threat” to a sustained recovery in the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Chair Timothy Fiore on a call with reporters after the PMI-ISM release. Later in the week, the ISM Services PMI for January reported a 52.8 reading, and although it declined from December, it remained solidly in expansion territory.

Topping the week’s economic news was Friday’s much anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. According to the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, lower than both an upwardly revised 307,000 in December and the consensus estimate of 170,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly, from 4.1% in December to 4.0% in January.

Metals and Mining

The bulls are dominating in the gold market as the metal did more than hold its support at $2,800 per ounce, it rallied to a series of new record highs to ultimately touch $2,900 on Friday. The renewed momentum has once more attracted new buyers, prompting many observers to once more eye $3,000 as an attainable target. The more bullish are starting to regard $3,000 as a mere stepping stone, arguing that the market has sufficient strength to go even higher. Gold’s inflation-adjusted all-time high is approximately $3,420. The record was set in January 1980 when prices hit $875 per ounce, at the end of a four-year rally that commenced in August 1976. According to analysts, many of the factors that drove gold’s rally five decades ago are once again at play today, making the all-time inflation-adjusted record seem once more attainable. Additionally, the geopolitical uncertainties regarding global wars and trade continue to compel investors to seek security in safe-haven assets such as gold.

The spot prices of precious metals were mixed for this week. Gold rose by 2.24% from last week’s closing price of $2,798.41 to end the week at $2,861.07 per troy ounce. Silver climbed by 1.66% from its close last week at $31.30 to close at $31.82 per troy ounce. Platinum, which closed last week at $982.56, ended this week at $978.49 per troy ounce for a loss of 0.41%. Palladium closed last week at $1,016.35 and this week at $971.20 per troy ounce for a decline of 4.44%. The three-month LME prices of industrial metals were mostly higher this week. Copper jumped by 3.97% from last week’s close at $9,048.00 to this week’s close at $9,407.50 per metric ton. Aluminum edged higher by 1.31% from its close last week at $2,594.00 to end this week at $2,628.00 per metric ton. Zinc came from its close last week at $2,742.00 to its close this week at $2,840.00 per metric ton, an increase of 3.57%.  Tin was priced last week at $30,102.00 and this week at $31,109.00 per metric ton for an appreciation of 3.35%.

Energy and Oil

After global concerns of a possible US-China trade war became the main talking point of the markets, Brent futures have reversed all their 2025 gains and plunged back to precisely where they began this year. In a meeting among U.S. oil executives in Houston this week, the impact of Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” policy has been played down by these executives who warned the industry that oil production from the prolific U.S. Permian Basin would slow down by at least 25% this year. Production will rise by some 250,000 barrels per day (b/d) after a 380,000 b/d increase in 2024. In any event, the U.S. President’s enthusiasm for increasing U.S. production adds one more bearish note to the prevailing market sentiment. This backdrop sets the stage for a $2-per-barrel week-over-week decline. In the first week of February, ICT Brent is seen to settle slightly below $75 per barrel.

Natural Gas

For this report week beginning Wednesday, January 29, and ending Wednesday, February 5, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price fell by $0.07 from $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.22/MMBtu. Concerning Henry Hub futures, the March 2025 NYMEX contract price increased to $3.360/MMBtu, up by $0.19 for the week. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2025 through February 2026 futures contracts rose by $0.09 to $3.905/MMBtu. Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $3.32 at Algonquin Citygate to an increase of $0.25 at Eastern Gas South.

International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. Weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia rose by $0.32 to a weekly average of $14.40/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the most liquid natural gas market in Europe, increased by $1.00 to a weekly average of $16.08/MMBtu. The weekly average TTF price has been above the weekly average East Asia price since January 13 of this year. In the week last year corresponding to this report week (beginning January 31 to February 7, 2025), the prices were $9.46/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.07/MMBtu at the TTF.

World Markets

The pan-Europea STOXX 600 Index ended 0.60% higher and just off a recent record level, despite concerns about U.S. trade policy and stalling economic growth. Major stock indexes climbed for the week. Germany’s DAX gained by 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.29%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose by 1.60%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index advanced by 0.31%. In January, annual price growth in the eurozone remained above the European Capital Bank’s (ECB’s) target for a third consecutive month, accelerating to 2.5% from December’s 2.4%.  Excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, core inflation held at 2.7%. Services price inflation, a closely monitored indicator by policymakers, came in at 3.9%. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.5%, the third interest rate cut since August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the move, citing that it had made sufficient progress on controlling inflation and wage growth. Two members supported a half-point reduction due to a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown. The BoE modified its forecast for the UK’s 2025 economic growth by half to 0.75%.  In Germany, factory orders jumped by 6.9% in December, rebounding from a 5.4% drop the previous month and exceeding consensus expectations for an increase of 2.0%.

Over the week, Japanese stock markets fell. The Nikkei 225 Index dropped by 2.0% while the broader TOPIX Index lost by 1.8%. Recent hawkish comments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) caused the yen to strengthen to rise from JPY 155.2 to the USD at the end of the previous week to the high end of the JPY 151 against the U.S. dollar range. The stronger yen weighed on the profit outlooks of the country’s export-heavy industries. On expectations of further interest rate increases by the BoJ this year, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose from the prior week’s 1.23% to 1.28%. If the economy and prices (as well as wages) develop in line with its forecasts, the bank expects to raise interest rates. The likelihood that more rate hikes will happen is supported by data showing that nominal wages rose sharply in December and the second consecutive month of positive growth in real wages (wages adjusted for inflation), although the surges were mostly due to a significant rise in companies’ winter bonuses. Separate data showed that in December, household spending rebounded by more than expected. According to the BoJ, real wages need to rise so that private consumption can follow an uptrend.

In a shortened trading week, Chinese stocks rose as evidence of strong consumer spending over the Lunar New Year holiday overcame the impact of U.S. President Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose by 1.98% and the Shanghai Composite Index gained by 1.63% from Wednesday to Friday. The mainland stock markets were closed from January 28 to February 4 for the nationwide holiday marking the Lunar New Year. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced by 4.49%. Driven by gains in technology companies, the rally was the market’s best weekly performance in four months. Over the Lunar New Year holiday, a key consumption period for China, travel and retail spending pointed to improved domestic demand. Citing data from ticketing site Maoyan, Bloomberg reported that box office receipts over the eight-day holiday jumped to $1.3 billion over last year’s holiday. According to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the volume of domestic trips rose during the holidays by a record 501 million, 5.9% higher than last year. However, although holiday sales data was solid, other data indicated weakness in the broader economy. The Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 51 in January from 52.2 in December (above 50 signifies expansion, below 50 contraction). This meant that the pace of expansion in business activity and new orders both slowed to their lowest level in four months.

The Week Ahead

The CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales data, and a host of talks by top Fed officials are among the events to look forward to in the coming week.

Key Topics to Watch

• NFIB optimism index for Jan.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks (Feb. 11)
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (Feb. 11)
• San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks (Feb. 11)
• New York Fed President Williams speaks (Feb. 11)
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks (Feb. 11)
• Consumer price index for Jan.
• CPI year over year
• Core CPI for Jan.
• Core CPI year over year
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (Feb. 12)
• New York Fed President Williams speaks (Feb. 12)
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks (Feb. 12)
• Monthly U.S. federal budget for Jan.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks (Feb. 12)
• Initial jobless claims for Feb. 8
• Producer price index for Jan.
• Core PPI for Jan.
• PPI year over year
• Core PPI year over year
• Import price index for Jan.
• Import price index minus fuel for Jan.
• U.S. retail sales for Jan.
• Retail sales minus autos for Jan.
• Industrial production for Jan.
• Capacity utilization for Jan.
• Business inventories for Dec.
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks (Feb. 14)

Markets Index Wrap-Up